I'm the co-founder of Transistor.fm (podcast hosting and analytics). I write about SaaS marketing, bootstrapping startups, pursuing a good life, building calm companies, business ethics, and creating a better society.
Reasonably unreasonable
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"Never tell me the odds." – Han Solo, Star Wars. What are the odds?Yesterday, I watched my favorite hockey team (the Edmonton Oilers) lose to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup finals. Every season, all 32 NHL teams have the same goal: "Win the Cup." But only one team can win. Even a strong team (like the Oilers) has only a 12% chance of winning. Put another way: they had an 88% chance of not winning. What are your odds?A founder building a new startup also faces daunting odds. As Jason Cohen says: "[Startup success] is rare and risky. [Many] people who are equally smart, equally deserving, equally privileged, and work equally hard often don’t make it." US data shows that only 20–30% of all new businesses are operating and profitable after 5 years. Why play the game?Given NHL playoff odds, what drives the Oilers captain, Connor McDavid, to strive for the Cup each year? Likewise, given your odds of success as an entrepreneur, what should drive you to start companies? Perhaps it's the same sentiment that drove NBA superstar Michael Jordan: "I can accept failure; everyone fails at something. But I can't accept not trying." What increases your odds of success?I like Kevin Smith's answer: "[Success] requires a reasonable amount of unreasonability. Not like, "Hey, man. I'm going to jump off a building and fly without the aid of a jetpack." That's unreasonable unreasonability. Reasonable amount is just like, "You know, why not me?" This is the first attribute: having just enough "unreasonable" belief in yourself. The second attribute you'll need is similar. I'm going to call it: "A reasonable amount of relentlessness." Jason Cohen says, "Before they were successful, every founder started out unsuccessful." What distinguishes founders who were (finally) able to build a profitable startup? Relentlessness and drive, tempered by realism. This means you're the kind of person who doggedly pursues a higher goal ("I'm going to build a profitable company to give me and my family a better life"), and you know it might take multiple bets to get there. Also, these have to be reasonable bets; you can't afford to make bad bets (because every startup costs you time, energy, and money). Finally, successful founders cultivate the skills, insights, connections, and resources they'll need to give them a shot at success. So, if you "can't accept not trying," focus on being:
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Justin's newsletter
I'm the co-founder of Transistor.fm (podcast hosting and analytics). I write about SaaS marketing, bootstrapping startups, pursuing a good life, building calm companies, business ethics, and creating a better society.
Hope you're having a good Sunday! (And happy Thanksgiving Weekend if you're Canadian). Here are a few things on my mind... When customers lean in Another great article from Rob Snyder on what "customer demand" looks and feels like: "You'll hear concepts like 'pain points' and 'problems' that make sense and sound right... But, as you've likely experienced, you can have someone complain about their big problems and pain points, who agree that your product would solve these pain points and...
Hey friends, Sometimes AI gets me excited ("wow, look at what we can build now!") and sometimes it gets me scared ("are my kids going to be able to find a job?"). Brian Casel and Justin Jackson are going live at 12:15 pm Pacific today to chat about it: On today's topic list: Sora V2 app OpenAI eating more SaaS categories? Tony Dinh and TypingMind - super inspiring Agent OS 2.0 is out. What's next? Could we do Aaron's "no-devices vision quest?" How do you introduce tech (or entrepreneurship)...
Hope you're having a good Sunday! Here are a few things on my mind... Thoughts on vibe coding and V0.dev I've been experimenting a bunch with Vercel's https://v0.app/ this week. I used it to build a free tool for podcasters: https://art.transistor.fm/ What blows my mind is V0's interface: you prompt it with your vision for how you want something to work and look, and it provides a near-instant feedback loop, showing you what it might look like. I had to get a bunch of thoughts out, so I did a...